Inter-State Variations in the Level of Total Fertility Rate in India and Its Determinants : Evidence from National Family Health Survey – 5
Authors
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Debojit Choudhury
Ph.D. Research Scholar (Corresponding Author), Department of Economics, Assam University, Silchar - 788 011, Assam
https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8957-0452
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Manash Roy
Senior Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Assam University, Silchar - 788 011, Assam
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9754-4690
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2025/v14i1/174334Keywords:
total fertility rate, National Family Health Survey - 5, OLS regressionJEL Classification Codes : C10, C50, I10, J10, J13
Publication Chronology:Paper Submission Date : June 3, 2024 ; Paper sent back for Revision : October 17, 2024 ; Paper Acceptance Date : December 26, 2024
Abstract
Purpose : The study attempted to look into the inter-state variations in the level of total fertility rate (TFR) in India and to explore its determinants.
Methodology : The study was based on secondary data collected from National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) State Fact sheets for 2019–2021. It used the ordinary least-square (OLS) regression model to explore the determinants of TFR. The study analyzed the data using STATA 17.
Findings : The study found higher inter-state variations in the level of TFR during NFHS-5. The regression results showed that TFR during NFHS-5 was negatively and significantly associated with women’s empowerment, use of modern contraceptives, and standard of living. At the same time, it was positively and significantly associated with female education, early marriage, and additional son preference by women. The findings of the study also revealed that TFR in the case of the Muslim population was significantly negative and relatively higher in the Northern and Western regions of the country.
Practical Implications : Major policy recommendations based on the findings of the study stressed more on raising the living standard of the households, providing more women empowerment, and promoting and popularizing the usage of modern contraceptives among couples more and more. The positive and significant impact of female education, as revealed by the present study, might be showing a new pathway in understanding the relationship between female education and TFR. It may be calling for a re-examination of the linkage between female education and TFR by addressing formal education and sex education both. In this regard, NFHS should include a database of female sex education in their upcoming future surveys. This would facilitate the research fraternity in assessing the causal relationship between female education and fertility in a new manner.
Originality : The present study was unique in the sense that it was a novel attempt to find the significant determinants of TFR based on the latest data set of NFHS.
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