India's Trade Relations with SAARC Countries in the Pre and Post SAFTA Periods : An Evaluation of Trade Flows by Using Multiple Regression Model

Authors

  •   Raj Kumar Singh Professor and Chairman, Department of Commerce, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla - 5, Himachal Pradesh
  •   Balbir Singh Assistant Professor - Commerce, Government Degree College, Bassa, Mandi, Himachal Pradesh
  •   Diksha Chauhan Research Scholar, Department of Commerce, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla - 5, Himachal Pradesh

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2018/v7i6/141433

Keywords:

SAFTA

, Gross Domestic Product, Terms Of Trade, Trade Openness, Multiple Regression Model

F10

, F13, F14

Paper Submission Date

, October 18, 2018, Paper Sent Back For Revision, December 18, Paper Acceptance Date, December 25, 2018

Abstract

International trade is an integral part of sustainable economic development of the nation. To foster international trade, the role of regional economic integration has become a significant feature of economic development. Many countries of the world have moved to regional economic integration with the twin objectives to promote economic development and standard of living of citizens. The significance of higher level of economic integration motivated the SAARC countries to sign free trade agreement in 2004. The study sought to examine India's trade potential with SAARC countries during the pre and post SAFTA periods. An annual time series panel data pertaining to SAARC countries from 1990-91 to 2016-2017 was used and transformed into natural logarithm form to reduce the impact of multicollinearity and to make the data comparable. To check the stationarity of the data, Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips - Perron tests were applied. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and post-hoc tests were used to analyze India's trade with SAARC countries in the pre and post SAFTA periods. Furthermore, the OLS multiple regression model was used to analyze the impact of independent variables on India's trade with SAARC countries.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Downloads

Published

2018-11-01

How to Cite

Singh, R. K., Singh, B., & Chauhan, D. (2018). India’s Trade Relations with SAARC Countries in the Pre and Post SAFTA Periods : An Evaluation of Trade Flows by Using Multiple Regression Model. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics & Research, 7(6), 43–59. https://doi.org/10.17010/aijer/2018/v7i6/141433

Issue

Volume 7, Issue 6, November - December 2018

Section

International Economics and Trade
Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

References

Ahuja, S. (1998). Indian joint ventures in SAARC countries : Problems and prospects. Vision: The Journal of Business Perspective, 2 (1), 45 - 51.

Akhter, N., & Ghani, E. (2010). Regional integration in South Asia: An analysis of trade flows using the gravity model. The Pakistan Development Review, 49 (2), 105 - 118. Retrieved from https://www.jstore.org/stable/41263356target="_blank">https://www.jstore.org/stable/41263356

Ambrose, B. (2006). Trading among SAARC countries: Problems and prospects. In B. Khan (ed.), Third Concept, Vol. 20, No. 235, pp. 7-10.

Bhatia, R. K. (2011). South Asia’s destiny: Conflict or cooperation? Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, 6 (2), 152 - 164.

Cheema, P. I. (1999). SAARC needs revamping. In E. Gonsalves & N. Jetly (eds), The dynamics of South Asia - regional cooperation and SAARC. New Delhi : Sage Publications.

Cherunilam, F. (1984). International trade and export management (Ch.1). Bombay : Himalaya Publishing House.

Doddamani, R. B. (2008). Relevance of SAARC in South Asia. Third Concept, 22 (260), 19 - 26.

Economics Online. (n.d. a.). Trade openness. Retrieved from http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/global_economics/trade_openness.html

Economics Online. (n.d. b.). Terms of trade. Retrieved from http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/global_economics/terms_of_trade.html

Gujarati, D. N., Porter, D. C., & Gunasekar, S. (2017). Basic econometrics. New Delhi : McGraw Hill Education.

Hafiz, W. A., Ciddikie, D., & Khan, M. A. (2014). India’s trade relationship with SAFTA countries : A review. Journal of Indian Research, 2 (1), 46 - 58.

Jain, N. (2012). International trade. New Delhi : Alpha Publication.

Katti, V., Natraj, G., & Acharya, A. (2008). SAFTA: A boost to intra-regional trade. In B.C. Upreti (ed.), Regional Cooperation in South Asia (p. 131). New Delhi : Sumit Enterprises.

Kaur, G., & Dhami J. K. (2016). Empirical analysis between export and GDP: A case of BIMSTEC as a regional trading bloc. Arthshastra Indian Journal of Economics and Research, 5 (6), 8 - 20. doi:10.17010/aijer/2016/v5i6/107518

Kaur, S., & Nanda, P. (2007). Intra-regional trade of SAARC under WTO regime. Apeejay Journal of Management and Technology, 2 (2), 74 - 82.

Maheswararao, K. (2015). Growth of India’s trade with individual SAARC countries. International Journal of Academic Research, 2 (1), 102 - 110.

Melitz, J. (2008). Language and foreign trade. European Economic Review, 52 (4), 667 - 699.

Prasad, B. (1999). Prospects for greater cooperation in South Asia : The political dimensions. In E. Gonsalves & N. Jetly (eds.), The dynamics of South Asia - regional cooperation and SAARC (pp. 63 - 74). New Delhi : Sage Publications.

Reserve Bank of India. (2017). Handbook of statistics Indian economy (2016 - 17). Mumbai : RBI.

Saez, L. (2011). The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) - An emerging collaboration architecture. Global Institutions Series (Vol. 56). New York : Routledge.

Saxena, S. (2016). India’s trade with SAARC countries. IMPACT: International Journal of Research in Humanities, Art and Literature, 4 (12), 73 - 84.

Shaheen, I. (2013). South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) : Its role, hurdles and prospects. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 15 (6), 01 - 09.

Sharma, N. (2014). Regional cooperation in South Asia: A study of political and economic dimensions of SAARC (Ch. 2, p. 60). New Delhi : Kalpaz Publications.

Shrimali, V. (2004). SAARC: Need for faster economic integration. The Indian Journal of Commerce, 57 (2), 114 - 116.

Singh, R. K. (2012). Dynamics of Intra-SAARC Economic Relation in WTO Saga: Constraints and Challenges. PCMA Journal of Business, 4 (1&2), 23 - 26.

Todaro, H. P., & Smith, S. C. (2007). Economic development (8th ed.). New Delhi : Dorling Kindersley, India Pvt. Ltd.

Trading Economics. (n.d.). GDP. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com

Upreti, B.C. (2008). Regional cooperation in South Asia : Emerging dimensions and issues (Ch. 1, pp. 07). New Delhi : Sumit Enterprises.